Researchers from Colorado State University (CSU) are predicting below normal tropical activity in the Atlantic basin for 2014. Each year, Dr. William Gray and Dr. Phil Klotzbach make long range forecasts in anticipation of the upcoming season. This year’s forecast follow two years of predictions that did not meet expectations. The 2012 season was more active than predicted, while the 2013 season was less active than the CSU forecast.
The research from the Tropical Meteorology Project indicates a moderate to strong El Nino should limit the number of storms. Water temperatures are also much lower in the Atlantic, which would produce fewer storms. The CSU prediction is: 9 named storms, 3 hurricanes, 1 major hurricane. There is a 19% chance of a landfalling hurricane between the Panhandle and Brownsville, TX. This is also a lower chance than usual.
NOAA will issue their long range forecast in May.